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System 1 System 1 should be used during the main National Hunt season only
and should commence on October 1st and end on the following April 30. The
qualifiers should be determind from the 'Racing Post'.
We do not bet in the following types of races-
a. All handicaps, we only make selections in non-handicaps.
b. Juvenile Hurdle races.
c. Amateur Races.
d. Any race where the forecast favourite is priced lower than 4/5.
Having eliminated all the races that are not eligible for consideration you
then need to apply the following 'rules' to the qualifying races providing
there are between 4 and 16 runners declared -
1. The horse must be a distance winner, shown by the letter D against the
horses name. Eliminate all runners that are not distance winners.
2. The horse must have been placed in the first three in its last race.
3. The horse must have won or been a close up second on todays going, in any
previous race, as reported by the 'Racing Post'
4. The horse must be in the top three of the 'Racing Post' betting forecast
for races with 8 or more runners and the top two for up to 7 runners.
5. The horse must be in the top two 'Postmark' ratings.
If you have more than one qualifier in any race then choose the one that has
the highest 'Topspeed' rating!
System 2
This system again operates during the main National Hunt season of October to April. Selections are made from your daily paper. Quite often the simplest plans prove to be the best and this method is no exception, employing just a few intelligent principles to arrive at top quality selections it specialises in using Non-Handicap Hurdles races only, so steeplechases are out!
1. Only consider making selections in Non-Handicap Hurdles races up to and including 2miles 6 furlongs.
2. The selected races must have between 5 and 14 runners. Anything outside of these parameters is to be ignored.
3. Eliminate all races where your chosen paper's betting forecast shows the favourite at odds below 4/6.
4. From the races which now remain we are only concerned with the forecast favourite providing that it meets the following criteria - (a) It must be top of your newspaper's ratings, and (b) it must have run in the last 30 days and been placed in the first three in it's last race.
System 3
The vast majority of punters lose money because they choose to employ an
undisciplined approach. Bookmakers would soon face complete ruin if they
operated in the same casual, slapdash manner. Without any shadow of doubt at
all, the greatest advantage backers have over the layers is that they can
decide when to bet and when to leave well alone. No one is forced to
speculate in wide open contests, for instance, where the chances of
accurately predicting the winner with any degree of confidence is at best
remote.
As someone who has always meticulously endeavoured to focus on ways of
generating worthwhile returns, the patently foolhardy actions of many fellow
punters often renders me speechless. They seem determinedly dead set on
squandering their hard-earned cash as quickly as humanely possible.
Hence the bookies are able to generate sizeable year on year profits without
too much trouble. Obviously, not all backers act in a blatantly reckless
fashion. In fact, a good number of them rely on sound winner-finding
form-book logic to determine their bets.
However, although this approach is far more preferable than merely resorting
to haphazard guesswork, most people do not have the time, inclination or
expertise to carry out detailed performance investigations and evaluations.
Form tends to be taken too much at face value.
Horses who notch up a convincing victory on their last appearance, for
example, often attract widespread of attention. The bookies, who are out to
capitalise as much as they can on the situation, normally respond by
chalking up odds which are lower than they justifiably should be for these
overexposed runners.
This means if you continually back what everyone else is backing, attempting
to make significant long-term headway will inevitably prove exceedingly
difficult. You need to look beyond the obvious because the crowd will simply
be never permitted to prosper. Therefore enlightened punters recognise the
need to refer to information which is not generally consumed by the average
backer.
Such a policy is paramount as the key to betting success lies in unearthing
underexposed opportunities, which not only triumph with pleasing regularity,
but are also allowed to start at rewarding odds. Let me now introduce a
selection process with an enviable record in both these vital areas.
THE SYSTEM RULES
Trainers are an instrumental element of this system - and with good reason.
Following stables, which are in winning form, will take you a long way
towards your objective of making racing profits.
Irrespective of just about any other consideration, once a trainer commences
sending out a high percentage of successful runners, it pays to take heed.
Many yards spend lengthy periods stuck in the doldrums. It's a frustrating
period for them where most their horses seem incapable of turning in a
decent performance. Then, suddenly, the spell can be broken and dramatic
reverses in fortune occur.
The same horses which once were left trailing behind in recent outings, are
now infused with all their former energy and vigour and unexpectedly storm
home at handsome odds. It's a process I have seen repeated time and time
again over many years.
When trainers get hot - you need to know about it!
There is only one conclusive way of establishing when a trainer merits
further investigation, and that's to keep a rolling account of how their
horses are performing. With the aid of a notebook and checking results, the
actual process of recording who is doing what is relatively easy and
straightforward, albeit a little time consuming.
Nevertheless, if you are serious about viewing racing as a profitable
activity, not just as a source of entertainment, then you should not
begrudge expending legitimate effort towards its attainment. It will be
worth it.
By keeping a continuous daily tally of their successes and failures, you
will in a position of identifying the moment when a individual trainer
achieves 5 winners from his/her last 15 runners (33% success).
So, once handlers gain 5 winners while at the same time achieving at least a
1 -3 win ratio or better, all horses emanating from these 'hot stables' must
be put under further scrutiny.
In fact, backing all qualifiers arising from the above stipulation has been
good enough to produce consistently big level stake profits. However,
further refinements are brought into play to help maximise profits even
further.
At the start of each new season the slate is wiped clean and we begin
afresh. After that, it's just a question of noting every day how well
trainers are performing. Of course, we're only interested in those who are
doing particularly well, supplying the material, which really counts
winners.
I must mention here that no time spans are allotted. This system doesn't
just focus on what has happened over the last 7 or 14 days, for instance.
Nor are we solely concerned with individual courses.
Sometimes a trainer will send out a batch of winners over the space of a day
or two; sometimes the process can be spread over a number of weeks. It
appears to make little appreciable difference. The only thing that need
alert you is when any trainer chalks up 5 winners out of no more than 15
runners. Once this feat is successfully in the bag, a careful note is made
of the names of the trainers in question and the horses they have running on
THE NEXT STAGE
Once you have found candidates fulfilling the above requirements, the next
stage is to apply a few more rules in order to determine if any of these
horses actually qualify as betting propositions.
HAS THE HORSE WON BEFORE? There's only one concrete way of establishing if a
runner has the necessary ability and aptitude to win a race, and that's to
check its previous history to confirm that it has won before.
A large number of runners in training simply do not possess the speed to
ever win even a minor event. Then you get those who consistently finish in
second or third spot, but lack the fortitude to take command at the winning
post. To circumvent this dilemma, ensure that all potential qualifiers have
succeeded at least once in the current season.
HAS THE HORSE WON A RACE AS VALUABLE AS TODAY'S? As with most things-in
life, money matters. The extent of the prize money is usually a reliable
guide as to the nature and class of the competitors taking part.
If a horse has previously triumphed in a race where the prize for the winner
was worth the same value or higher than today's, then this signals that our
intended target is not out of his depth. Should today's contest be more
valuable, then this will be acceptable provided there aren't any other
rivals who have previously won a more valuable race than our potential
qualifier. If not, the horse is eliminated from further consideration.
IN HANDICAPS, HORSE MUST HAVE WON A HANDICAP. Never consider backing a horse
in a handicap if it has only ever previously won in non-handicap events.
Many horses try to make the transition from non-handicap into handicaps but
often come unstuck, getting run off their feet by quicker opposition. Watch
out for this.
AVOID RACES WITH BIG FIELDS. The bigger the field the bigger the risk.
Things can go wrong in any horse race, as every racing enthusiast will
testify. But more hard luck stories abound in big-field races than any
other.
To minimise the inherent dangers as much as possible, confine your betting
activities to contests containing 12 or fewer entries. Certainly, some
winners will be missed by enforcing this restriction. However, as the
records clearly reveal, a lot more losers will also be avoided.
MUST BE WITHIN FIRST 6 IN THE BETTING FORECAST. Research undeniably spells
out the strong message that if a horse fails to get quoted within the first
6 of the betting forecast, it's chances of winning are severely curtained.
The suggested reference is the Racing Post newspaper. The people who compile
the odds for his specialist publication are turf experts in their own rights
and can be depended on to make sound judgements. Use their betting forecast
as a guide and you will not go far wrong.
This then is the system in its entirety. Any contender, which manages to
meet all the above requirements, becomes a. qualifier you can support with
confidence.
Any horse that qualifies under the above principles is a system selection.
Good luck.
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